Dundee vs Kilmarnock result: 3-1 as Dundee were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: Dundee 3-1 Kilmarnock. We tipped Dundee at 47.9% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Scottish Premiership sees Dundee face Kilmarnock at The Scot Foam Stadium at Dens Park. The model makes Dundee the favourite, assigning a slight 47.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Dundee 47.9%, draw 27.2%, Kilmarnock 24.8%.
Dundee have generated 1.37 goals per game (0.95x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.45 conceded per game. Kilmarnock average 1.25 scored (0.86x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.96 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.1 for Dundee and 1.1 for Kilmarnock.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 62.2%), and both teams are likely to score (60.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Dundee to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 47.9% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
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Head-to-head & form · More predictions · Scottish Premiership