Aberdeen vs Falkirk result: 0-1 as Aberdeen were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Aberdeen 0-1 Falkirk. We tipped Aberdeen at 57% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Scottish Premiership sees Aberdeen face Falkirk at Pittodrie Stadium. The model makes Aberdeen the favourite, assigning a slight 57% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Aberdeen 57%, draw 22.3%, Falkirk 20.7%.
Aberdeen have generated 1.20 goals per game (0.83x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.43 conceded per game. Falkirk average 1.35 scored (0.94x average) and are a steady defence at 1.49 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.4 for Aberdeen and 1.2 for Falkirk.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (54%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Aberdeen to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 57% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
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Head-to-head & form · More predictions · Scottish Premiership