St Mirren vs Dundee prediction: St Mirren narrow favourites at 46.8%
Scottish Premiership sees St Mirren face Dundee at The SMISA Stadium. The model makes St Mirren the favourite, assigning a slight 46.8% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is St Mirren 46.8%, draw 23.5%, Dundee 29.7%.
St Mirren have generated 0.88 goals per game (0.62x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.77 conceded per game. Dundee average 1.40 scored (0.98x average) and are a steady defence at 1.41 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1 for St Mirren and 1.6 for Dundee.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (50.7%).
Verdict: St Mirren to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 46.8% confidence. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
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