Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian prediction: Heart of Midlothian to win 1-2 as model gives 53.3% chance
Scottish Premiership sees Motherwell face Heart of Midlothian at Fir Park. The model makes Heart of Midlothian the favourite, assigning a slight 53.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Motherwell 19.9%, draw 26.8%, Heart of Midlothian 53.3%.
Motherwell have generated 1.36 goals per game (0.94x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.50 conceded per game. Heart of Midlothian average 1.95 scored (1.35x average) and are a steady defence at 1.39 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.5 for Motherwell and 1.8 for Heart of Midlothian.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 63.5%), and both teams are likely to score (65.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Heart of Midlothian to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 53.3% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
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Head-to-head & form · More predictions · Scottish Premiership