Dundee United vs Aberdeen prediction: Dundee United to win 1-0 as model gives 46.8% chance
Scottish Premiership sees Dundee United face Aberdeen at Tannadice Park. The model makes Dundee United the favourite, assigning a slight 46.8% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Dundee United 46.8%, draw 26.5%, Aberdeen 26.7%.
Dundee United have generated 1.23 goals per game (0.87x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.40 conceded per game. Aberdeen average 1.14 scored (0.80x average) and are a steady defence at 1.32 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for Dundee United and 1 for Aberdeen.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 60%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (47.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Dundee United to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 46.8% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
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Head-to-head & form · More predictions · Scottish Premiership