Celtic vs Heart of Midlothian prediction: Celtic to win 2-1 as model gives 68.4% chance
Scottish Premiership sees Celtic face Heart of Midlothian at Celtic Park. The model makes Celtic the favourite, assigning a clear 68.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Celtic 68.4%, draw 19%, Heart of Midlothian 12.6%.
Celtic have generated 2.04 goals per game (1.49x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.85 conceded per game. Heart of Midlothian average 2.02 scored (1.47x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.97 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.6 for Celtic and 1.1 for Heart of Midlothian.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (55.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Celtic to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 68.4% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Celtic condemn protest after tennis balls thrown at owner — Celtic have condemned the protest which saw tennis balls thrown towards principal shareholder Dermot Desmond during his visit to the Alfred Dunhill Links golf tournament at St Andrews. (ESPN, 2026-10-04)
- 2026-27 Scottish Premiership preview: Celtic again? New-look Rangers? Another Hearts shock? Assessing every team — Celtic? Rangers? Hearts? ESPN's Mark Donaldson breaks down what you need to know about every team ahead of the 2026-27 Scottish Premiership season. (ESPN, 2026-10-02)
- Celtic 0-1 Rangers: Ryan Naderi gives visitors second derby win in a week - as it happened — Rangers claimed their second Old Firm derby win in a week as Ryan Naderi's goal claimed three points at Celtic. (ESPN, 2026-09-20)
- Rangers' Ryan Naderi downs Celtic in Old Firm Derby — Ryan Naderi scored the only goal as Rangers defeated Celtic 1-0 at Celtic Park on Sunday. (ESPN, 2026-09-20)
- Celtic vs. Rangers - Kick-off time, how to watch Olwethu Makhanya in South Africa on ESPN and Disney+ — In a rematch of last Sunday's Old Firm Premier Sports Cup clash, Celtic will face Rangers again this Sunday - this time in the Scottish Premiership at Celtic Park. (ESPN, 2026-09-18)
- Olwethu Makhanya's first Rangers vs. Celtic Old Firm Derby - What to know — South Africa centre-back Olwethu Makhanya has fast become a fan favourite at Rangers, but Sunday's Old Firm derby against Celtic at Ibrox in the Scottish League Cup (Premier Sports Cup) quarter-finals will be unlike any experience to date. (ESPN, 2026-09-11)
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