Newcastle United vs Everton prediction: Newcastle United to win 2-1 as model gives 36% chance
Premier League sees Newcastle United face Everton at St. James' Park. The model makes Newcastle United the favourite, assigning a narrow 36% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Newcastle United 36%, draw 28.8%, Everton 35.2%.
Newcastle United have generated 1.45 goals per game (1.05x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.60 conceded per game. Everton average 1.13 scored (0.82x average) and are a steady defence at 1.33 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.6 for Newcastle United and 1.2 for Everton.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (56.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Newcastle United to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 36% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Jack Grealish misses Everton-Newcastle due to 'breach of club discipline' — Jack Grealish was made unavailable for Everton's Carabao Cup round of 16 match against Newcastle on Thursday due to what the club called a "breach of club discipline." (ESPN, 2026-10-30)
- Michael Owen: I didn't get enough credit for winning Ballon d'Or — Michael Owen has said that he doesn't believe he got the sort of credit that "others would" for winning the Ballon d'Or when he triumphed in 2001. (ESPN, 2026-10-30)
- David Moyes: Everton in the Carabao Cup quarterfinals 'sounds good' — David Moyes has said that talking about Everton in the quarterfinals of the Carabao Cup "sounds good" after his side comfortably beat Newcastle United on Thursday. (ESPN, 2026-10-29)
- Everton 3-1 Newcastle: Hosts cruise into Carabao Cup quarterfinal - as it happened — Everton set up a quarterfinal visit to Fleetwood Town with a comfortable 3-1 victory over Newcastle. (ESPN, 2026-10-29)
- Ranked: Every Premier League team's money-per-points (after Man City cheated) — How much did Premier League teams spend for points -- after Man City cheated? We find out which clubs were wasteful and which spent smart. (ESPN, 2026-10-29)
- Carabao Cup quarterfinal draw: Liverpool to face Bournemouth — Liverpool will host fellow Premier League side Bournemouth in the Carabao Cup quarterfinals after making it past Chelsea in a penalty shootout on Wednesday. (ESPN, 2026-10-28)