Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction: Arsenal to win 0-1 as model gives 44.5% chance
Premier League sees Liverpool face Arsenal at Anfield. The model makes Arsenal the favourite, assigning a narrow 44.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Liverpool 29.7%, draw 25.8%, Arsenal 44.5%.
Liverpool have generated 1.55 goals per game (1.12x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.21 conceded per game. Arsenal average 1.71 scored (1.24x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.68 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.9 for Liverpool and 1.4 for Arsenal.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 62.1%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 44.1%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 1-1, 0-1, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Arsenal to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 44.5% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
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