Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest prediction: Nottingham Forest to win 1-2 as model gives 48.5% chance
Premier League sees Ipswich Town face Nottingham Forest at Portman Road. The model makes Nottingham Forest the favourite, assigning a slight 48.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Ipswich Town 23.8%, draw 27.7%, Nottingham Forest 48.5%.
Ipswich Town have generated 1.53 goals per game (1.08x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.14 conceded per game. Nottingham Forest average 1.15 scored (0.81x average) and are a steady defence at 1.28 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.5 for Ipswich Town and 1.6 for Nottingham Forest.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 60%), and both teams are likely to score (63.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Nottingham Forest to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 48.5% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Morgan Gibbs-White set to be fit for Nottingham Forest's clash with Ipswich — Morgan Gibbs-White will be back in contention for Nottingham Forest's game at Ipswich on Friday evening. (ESPN, 2026-10-21)
- Mikel Arteta puts stale Arsenal display down to Nottingham Forest tactics: 'They put a Christmas tree there' — Mikel Arteta has defended his Arsenal team after they only managed one shot on target in their 1-0 win at Nottingham Forest on Sunday. (ESPN, 2026-10-19)
- Noni Madueke on Arsenal's late win over stubborn Nottingham Forest: 'Champions' spirit' — Arsenal forward Noni Madueke has said that the club showed the spirit of champions in their hard-fought Premier League win over Nottingham Forest on Sunday. (ESPN, 2026-10-19)
- Arsenal don't look ready to 'attack' the Premier League title like they want to -- yet — Defending Premier League champions Arsenal put in a weak attacking performance at Nottingham Forest -- but maybe that's just fine. (ESPN, 2026-10-18)
- Premier League recap: Man United struggle and draw; Arsenal struggle and win — Arsenal got an important win as they look to keep pace with Manchester City at the top of the Premier League. ESPN's dedicated match blog has all the updates. (ESPN, 2026-10-18)
- Nottingham Forest 0-1 Arsenal: Noni Madueke seals tight win for Gunners - as it happened — A neat Noni Madueke strike was the difference as Arsenal closed to the gap to league leaders Manchester City to three points with a win over Nottingham Forest at the City Ground. (ESPN, 2026-10-18)