Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United prediction: Newcastle United to win 1-2 as model gives 44.3% chance
Premier League sees Crystal Palace face Newcastle United at Selhurst Park. The model makes Newcastle United the favourite, assigning a narrow 44.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Crystal Palace 27.3%, draw 28.4%, Newcastle United 44.3%.
Crystal Palace have generated 1.18 goals per game (0.84x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.94 conceded per game. Newcastle United average 1.41 scored (1.01x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.73 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.6 for Crystal Palace and 1.8 for Newcastle United.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 65.8%), and both teams are likely to score (67.7%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Newcastle United to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 44.3% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Bruno Guimarães: I had sleepless nights over Arsenal move — Bruno Guimarães has admitted he had sleepless nights over his decision to leave Newcastle United for Arsenal. (ESPN, 2026-10-22)
- Referees' boss Webb backs VAR over Newcastle's Botman challenge on Villa's Jackson — Referees boss Howard Webb believes the video assistant referee was right not to intervene after Newcastle's Sven Botman was shown a yellow card for his tackle on Aston Villa's Nicolas Jackson at the weekend. (ESPN, 2026-10-20)
- Premier League Top 50: Ranking the best players so far this season — The Premier League Top 50 returns for the 2026-27 season to rank the best players across the league so far. (ESPN, 2026-10-16)
- Johan Manzambi to haunt Newcastle? Matthias Jaissle won't be 'distracted' — Newcastle head coach Matthias Jaissle says he is uninterested in dwelling on what might have been when highly-rated Aston Villa midfielder Johan Manzambi visits. (ESPN, 2026-10-16)
- 'Frustrated' Pierre Sage: Crystal Palace 'really far off' expectations in Lyon defeat — Pierre Sage said Crystal Palace were "really far off" his expectations after suffering a 3-2 Europa League defeat away to his former side Lyon. (ESPN, 2026-10-15)
- Lyon 3-2 Crystal Palace: Visitors fall short in thriller against Sage's former club - as it happened — Lyon have beaten Crystal Palace 3-2 to make it two wins from two in the UEFA Europa League. (ESPN, 2026-10-15)