Getafe vs Sevilla prediction: Sevilla to win 0-1 as model gives 44.7% chance
La Liga sees Getafe face Sevilla at Estadio Coliseum. The model makes Sevilla the favourite, assigning a narrow 44.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Getafe 27%, draw 28.3%, Sevilla 44.7%.
Getafe have generated 0.66 goals per game (0.46x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.26 conceded per game. Sevilla average 1.37 scored (0.96x average) and are a steady defence at 1.60 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.8 for Getafe and 1.1 for Sevilla.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 69.7%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 39.1%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 0-0, 1-1, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Sevilla to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 44.7% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Getafe president: Deal for ex-Real Madrid defender Dani Carvajal is off — The Getafe president has said his club's signing Dani Carvajal from Real Madrid is off. (ESPN, 2026-10-07)
- Sevilla's Luis García: 'It's a joke' Raphinha not Ballon d'Or nominee after another Barcelona hat trick — Sevilla coach Luis García said it is a joke Raphinha is not among the Ballon d'Or nominees after watching the Barcelona forward score a hat-trick in his side's 3-1 defeat on Saturday. (ESPN, 2026-09-22)
- Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scores in first five LaLiga games, joins exclusive club — Deportivo's Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang netted the equaliser in Sunday's 1-1 draw at Getafe to become the first player since Zlatan Ibrahimovic in 2009-10 to score in each of the first five LaLiga games of a season. (ESPN, 2026-09-14)