Elche vs Valencia prediction: Elche to win 1-0 as model gives 35.8% chance
La Liga sees Elche face Valencia at Estadio Martínez Valero. The model makes Elche the favourite, assigning a narrow 35.8% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Elche 35.8%, draw 29.5%, Valencia 34.7%.
Elche have generated 1.35 goals per game (0.95x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.53 conceded per game. Valencia average 1.03 scored (0.73x average) and are a steady defence at 1.53 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.6 for Elche and 1 for Valencia.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (52.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 2-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Elche to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 35.8% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Copa del Rey matches postponed after fatal train crash in Spain — Twenty-four Copa del Rey first-round games have been postponed as a "mark of respect" after a fatal train crash in the province of Toledo, Spain. (ESPN, 2026-10-28)
- Liverpool loanee Harvey Elliott sent off for two yellows inside a minute — Liverpool loanee Harvey Elliott was sent off for two yellow card in under a minute during Valencia's 2-1 defeat to Villareal in LaLiga on Saturday. (ESPN, 2026-10-25)
- Javier Aguirre turned down four coaching offers until 'Valencia called' — Former Mexico coach Javier Aguirre said he turned down four other jobs before accepting the challenge to return to LaLiga with Valencia. (ESPN, 2026-09-28)
- Valencia have 'a lot of work' to get back on track - Javier Aguirre — Veteran coach Javier Aguirre arrived in Valencia saying there's "a lot of work" to do to help the team recover from a poor start to the season but insisting there was enough talent and quality to get the squad back on track. (ESPN, 2026-09-24)
- Former Mexico coach Aguirre takes over at struggling Valencia — LaLiga side Valencia have appointed former Mexico coach Javier Aguirre on an initial deal until the end of the season. (ESPN, 2026-09-23)
- Source: Former Mexico boss Aguirre close to taking over struggling Valencia — Former Mexico boss Javier Aguirre has emerged as the leading candidate to fill Valencia's coaching vacancy, a source told ESPN. (ESPN, 2026-09-19)