Deportivo vs Osasuna prediction: Deportivo to win 1-0 as model gives 45.7% chance
La Liga sees Deportivo face Osasuna at Riazor. The model makes Deportivo the favourite, assigning a slight 45.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Deportivo 45.7%, draw 28.4%, Osasuna 26%.
Deportivo have generated 1.25 goals per game (0.88x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.32 conceded per game. Osasuna average 1.10 scored (0.77x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.74 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.7 for Deportivo and 0.9 for Osasuna.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (50.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Deportivo to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 45.7% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, 37, joins Jude Bellingham with goal in first four LaLiga matches — Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang continued his strong start at Deportivo La Coruña as he scored for the fourth La Liga match in succession. (ESPN, 2026-09-07)