Valencia vs Villarreal prediction: Villarreal to win 0-1 as model gives 50.3% chance
La Liga sees Valencia face Villarreal at Mestalla Stadium. The model makes Villarreal the favourite, assigning a slight 50.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Valencia 22.9%, draw 26.8%, Villarreal 50.3%.
Valencia have generated 1.04 goals per game (0.72x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.50 conceded per game. Villarreal average 1.66 scored (1.15x average) and are a steady defence at 1.34 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.1 for Valencia and 1.6 for Villarreal.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (53.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 1-1, 0-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Villarreal to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 50.3% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
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- Former Mexico coach Aguirre takes over at struggling Valencia — LaLiga side Valencia have appointed former Mexico coach Javier Aguirre on an initial deal until the end of the season. (ESPN, 2026-09-23)
- Source: Former Mexico boss Aguirre close to taking over struggling Valencia — Former Mexico boss Javier Aguirre has emerged as the leading candidate to fill Valencia's coaching vacancy, a source told ESPN. (ESPN, 2026-09-19)