Sevilla vs Osasuna prediction: Sevilla to win 2-1 as model gives 48.5% chance
La Liga sees Sevilla face Osasuna at Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium. The model makes Sevilla the favourite, assigning a slight 48.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Sevilla 48.5%, draw 26.3%, Osasuna 25.3%.
Sevilla have generated 1.33 goals per game (0.93x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.71 conceded per game. Osasuna average 1.18 scored (0.82x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.72 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.8 for Sevilla and 1.3 for Osasuna.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 58.8%), and both teams are likely to score (60.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Sevilla to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 48.5% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Sevilla's Luis García: 'It's a joke' Raphinha not Ballon d'Or nominee after another Barcelona hat trick — Sevilla coach Luis García said it is a joke Raphinha is not among the Ballon d'Or nominees after watching the Barcelona forward score a hat-trick in his side's 3-1 defeat on Saturday. (ESPN, 2026-09-22)