Real Sociedad vs Levante prediction: Real Sociedad to win 2-1 as model gives 58% chance
La Liga sees Real Sociedad face Levante at Reale Arena. The model makes Real Sociedad the favourite, assigning a slight 58% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Real Sociedad 58%, draw 23%, Levante 19%.
Real Sociedad have generated 1.82 goals per game (1.27x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.80 conceded per game. Levante average 1.54 scored (1.07x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.71 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.4 for Real Sociedad and 1.7 for Levante.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 78.5%), and both teams are likely to score (75.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 2-1, 1-1, 2-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Real Sociedad to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 58% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Transfer rumors, news: Liverpool, Man City eye Real Sociedad's Aramburu — Man City and Liverpool are both looking at Real Sociedad defender Jon Aramburu. Transfer Talk has the latest. (ESPN, 2026-09-20)
- Socceroos stalwart axed for Brazil series — Captain Maty Ryan has been left out of the Socceroos squad altogether for upcoming games against Brazil, while coach Tony Popovic has called up seven uncapped players for Australia's first matches since the World Cup. (ESPN, 2026-09-18)
- Real Sociedad 1-2 Bournemouth: Kluivert, Rayan goals fire Cherries to historic European win - as it happened — Bournemouth marked their European debut with a 2-1 away win at Real Sociedad after two first-half goals proved enough in San Sebastián. (ESPN, 2026-09-17)
- Barcelona boss Hansi Flick: 'Not our best game' despite 4-2 win at Levante — Hansi Flick said Barcelona were not at their best after surviving a scare before beating Levante 4-2 on Sunday in LaLiga to continue their perfect start to the season. (ESPN, 2026-09-13)