Athletic Club vs Getafe prediction: Athletic Club to win 1-0 as model gives 64.2% chance
La Liga sees Athletic Club face Getafe at San Mamés. The model makes Athletic Club the favourite, assigning a clear 64.2% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Athletic Club 64.2%, draw 20.1%, Getafe 15.7%.
Athletic Club have generated 1.02 goals per game (0.71x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.29 conceded per game. Getafe average 0.71 scored (0.49x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.07 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.9 for Athletic Club and 0.6 for Getafe.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 82.8%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 26.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Athletic Club to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 64.2% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Getafe president: Deal for ex-Real Madrid defender Dani Carvajal is off — The Getafe president has said his club's signing Dani Carvajal from Real Madrid is off. (ESPN, 2026-10-07)
- Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scores in first five LaLiga games, joins exclusive club — Deportivo's Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang netted the equaliser in Sunday's 1-1 draw at Getafe to become the first player since Zlatan Ibrahimovic in 2009-10 to score in each of the first five LaLiga games of a season. (ESPN, 2026-09-14)
- Athletic Club's Iñaki Williams retires from Ghana duty — Ghana forward Iñaki Williams announced on Friday he is retiring from international football. (ESPN, 2026-09-11)
- Atlético Madrid 'need' Julián Álvarez's goals - Marcos Llorente — Marcos Llorente told ESPN that Atletico Madrid need Julián Álvarez to start scoring after the team suffered a shock 3-0 defeat at Athletic Club in LaLiga on Saturday. (ESPN, 2026-09-05)