Osasuna vs Racing Santander prediction: Osasuna to win 2-1 as model gives 51.9% chance
La Liga sees Osasuna face Racing Santander at El Sadar. The model makes Osasuna the favourite, assigning a slight 51.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Osasuna 51.9%, draw 24.7%, Racing Santander 23.4%.
Osasuna have generated 1.12 goals per game (0.78x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.85 conceded per game. Racing Santander average 1.63 scored (1.13x average) and are a leaky defence at 2.94 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.6 for Osasuna and 1.9 for Racing Santander.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 81.9%), and both teams are likely to score (78.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 2-1, 2-2, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Osasuna to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 51.9% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Raphinha bags hat trick as Barcelona score 7 to set record start — Barcelona sent records tumbling with a 7-2 thumping of Racing Santander to make it seven straight wins to start the season for the first time in the club's history. (ESPN, 2026-09-17)