Deportivo vs Levante prediction: Deportivo to win 2-1 as model gives 46.1% chance
La Liga sees Deportivo face Levante at Riazor. The model makes Deportivo the favourite, assigning a slight 46.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Deportivo 46.1%, draw 27.6%, Levante 26.2%.
Deportivo have generated 1.50 goals per game (1.05x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.43 conceded per game. Levante average 1.33 scored (0.93x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.73 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2 for Deportivo and 1.2 for Levante.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 62.6%), and both teams are likely to score (61.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Deportivo to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 46.1% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Socceroos stalwart axed for Brazil series — Captain Maty Ryan has been left out of the Socceroos squad altogether for upcoming games against Brazil, while coach Tony Popovic has called up seven uncapped players for Australia's first matches since the World Cup. (ESPN, 2026-09-18)
- Barcelona boss Hansi Flick: 'Not our best game' despite 4-2 win at Levante — Hansi Flick said Barcelona were not at their best after surviving a scare before beating Levante 4-2 on Sunday in LaLiga to continue their perfect start to the season. (ESPN, 2026-09-13)
- Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, 37, joins Jude Bellingham with goal in first four LaLiga matches — Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang continued his strong start at Deportivo La Coruña as he scored for the fourth La Liga match in succession. (ESPN, 2026-09-07)
- LaLiga is back! But why aren't Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atlético playing? — The new season of LaLiga kicks off without any of its biggest three clubs in action. But there are still plenty of reasons to tune in this weekend. (ESPN, 2026-08-14)