Celta Vigo vs Alavés prediction: Celta Vigo to win 1-0 as model gives 48.6% chance
La Liga sees Celta Vigo face Alavés at Balaidos. The model makes Celta Vigo the favourite, assigning a slight 48.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Celta Vigo 48.6%, draw 26.5%, Alavés 24.9%.
Celta Vigo have generated 1.26 goals per game (0.88x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.05 conceded per game. Alavés average 1.35 scored (0.94x average) and are a steady defence at 1.32 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for Celta Vigo and 0.9 for Alavés.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 62.7%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 44.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Celta Vigo to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 48.6% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
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