Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction: Borussia Mönchengladbach to win 1-0 as model gives 46% chance
Bundesliga sees Borussia Mönchengladbach face SC Paderborn 07 at BORUSSIA-PARK. The model makes Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite, assigning a slight 46% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Borussia Mönchengladbach 46%, draw 24.9%, SC Paderborn 07 29.1%.
Borussia Mönchengladbach have generated 1.46 goals per game (0.86x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.23 conceded per game. SC Paderborn 07 average 0.91 scored (0.54x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.29 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.2 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.1 for SC Paderborn 07.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 58.9%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (48.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Borussia Mönchengladbach to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 46% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- USMNT's Scally scores, helps Gladbach avoid worst-ever Bundesliga start — Borussia Mönchengladbach avoided becoming the first team in Bundesliga history to lose seven straight games to start the season, thanks to a 3-2 win at Stuttgart on Friday. (ESPN, 2026-10-23)
- Borussia Monchengladbach hire new coach amid losing start — Borussia Mönchengladbach hired Alexander Blessin as their new coach on Tuesday, tasking him with turning around a losing start to the Bundesliga season. (ESPN, 2026-09-22)