FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg prediction: SC Freiburg to win 1-2 as model gives 46.3% chance
Bundesliga sees FC Augsburg face SC Freiburg at WWK Arena. The model makes SC Freiburg the favourite, assigning a slight 46.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is FC Augsburg 25%, draw 28.7%, SC Freiburg 46.3%.
FC Augsburg have generated 1.84 goals per game (1.09x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.82 conceded per game. SC Freiburg average 1.84 scored (1.09x average) and are a steady defence at 1.55 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.9 for FC Augsburg and 1.8 for SC Freiburg.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 70.9%), and both teams are likely to score (71.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: SC Freiburg to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 46.3% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Ex-U.S. youth defender Noahkai Banks picks Germany over USMNT — The German Football Federation announced on Friday that coveted dual national defender Noahkai Banks has pledged his international future to Germany over the United States. (ESPN, 2026-09-18)