Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart prediction: Bayer Leverkusen to win 2-1 as model gives 49.1% chance
Bundesliga sees Bayer Leverkusen face VfB Stuttgart at BayArena. The model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite, assigning a slight 49.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Bayer Leverkusen 49.1%, draw 26%, VfB Stuttgart 24.9%.
Bayer Leverkusen have generated 2.09 goals per game (1.24x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.57 conceded per game. VfB Stuttgart average 1.82 scored (1.08x average) and are a steady defence at 1.64 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.3 for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.5 for VfB Stuttgart.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 73.1%), and both teams are likely to score (71.1%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 2-1, 1-1, 2-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Bayer Leverkusen to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 49.1% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- USMNT's Scally scores, helps Gladbach avoid worst-ever Bundesliga start — Borussia Mönchengladbach avoided becoming the first team in Bundesliga history to lose seven straight games to start the season, thanks to a 3-2 win at Stuttgart on Friday. (ESPN, 2026-10-23)
- England's Jarell Quansah vows to learn from 'gut-wrenching' WC red card — Jarell Quansah has far worse memories of England's famous World Cup win in Mexico than most, with the red-carded defender determined to learn from his "horrible" evening at the Azteca. (ESPN, 2026-10-07)
- Transfer rumors, news: Arsenal, Tottenham eye move for Maza — Both Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur are competing to sign Bayer Leverkusen's Ibrahim Maza. Transfer Talk has the latest. (ESPN, 2026-09-28)
- Is it time for Liverpool to give up on Florian Wirtz already? Or is he a superstar-in-progress? — Liverpool spent a then-club record fee to sign Florian Wirtz, but his low stats have many writing him off. Is it too soon, or should Liverpool move on? (ESPN, 2026-09-22)
- Stuttgart's Demirovic scores 12-minute Champions League hat trick — VfB Stuttgart 's Ermedin Demirovic scored the first hat trick of the Champions League season in the span of 12 first-half minutes against Viking on Wednesday. (ESPN, 2026-09-09)