Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund prediction: Bayern Munich to win 2-1 as model gives 71.5% chance
Bundesliga sees Bayern Munich face Borussia Dortmund at Allianz Arena. The model makes Bayern Munich the favourite, assigning a clear 71.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Bayern Munich 71.5%, draw 17.8%, Borussia Dortmund 10.7%.
Bayern Munich have generated 3.53 goals per game (2.09x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.05 conceded per game. Borussia Dortmund average 1.87 scored (1.11x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.82 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.9 for Bayern Munich and 1 for Borussia Dortmund.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 56.8%), and both teams are likely to score (56.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Bayern Munich to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 71.5% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Borussia Dortmund must stop Bayern's 'sensational' Harry Kane - Kovac — Borussia Dortmund coach Niko Kovac has called on his players to work together to stop "sensational" Ballon d'Or winner Harry Kane against Bayern Munich. (ESPN, 2026-10-29)
- Harry Kane knighthood? It would be 'weird' to be called Sir — Harry Kane has said that he would find it strange to be called "Sir" if he earns a knighthood after winning the Ballon d'Or. (ESPN, 2026-10-29)
- Bayern Munich's Vincent Kompany discharged from hospital after collapse — Bayern Munich coach Vincent Kompany has been discharged from the hospital following his collapse last week. (ESPN, 2026-10-29)
- Bayern honor Kane for Ballon d'Or win before German Cup rout — Ballon D'Or winner Harry Kane received a guard of honor from Bayern Munich before a German Cup second-round rout of second-tier FC Magdeburg on Wednesday. (ESPN, 2026-10-28)
- Bayern Munich-Ajax to inaugurate Nairobi stadium for AFCON 2027 — Ajax Amsterdam and Bayern Munich will meet in a friendly in Nairobi, Kenya on Jan. 5 to inaugurate the new Raila Odinga International Stadium. (ESPN, 2026-10-28)
- Ballon d'Or winner Harry Kane gets hero's welcome on Bayern Munich return — After an historic Ballon d'Or win and an emotional speech, Harry Kane arrived back in Germany on Tuesday to a hero's welcome at Bayern Munich. (ESPN, 2026-10-28)