SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburg SV prediction: SC Paderborn 07 to win 1-0 as model gives 40.9% chance
Bundesliga sees SC Paderborn 07 face Hamburg SV at Home Deluxe Arena. The model makes SC Paderborn 07 the favourite, assigning a narrow 40.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is SC Paderborn 07 40.9%, draw 26.9%, Hamburg SV 32.2%.
SC Paderborn 07 have generated 0.89 goals per game (0.52x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.56 conceded per game. Hamburg SV average 1.19 scored (0.69x average) and are a steady defence at 1.97 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.1 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1 for Hamburg SV.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 64.7%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 43.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: SC Paderborn 07 to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 40.9% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Fabio Vieira joins Hamburg in permanent deal from Arsenal — Fabio Vieira has completed a permanent move to Bundesliga side Hamburg SV from Arsenal. (ESPN, 2026-09-01)