FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin prediction: FC Augsburg to win 2-1 as model gives 52.1% chance
Bundesliga sees FC Augsburg face 1. FC Union Berlin at WWK Arena. The model makes FC Augsburg the favourite, assigning a slight 52.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is FC Augsburg 52.1%, draw 27%, 1. FC Union Berlin 20.9%.
FC Augsburg have generated 1.91 goals per game (1.12x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.89 conceded per game. 1. FC Union Berlin average 1.11 scored (0.65x average) and are a leaky defence at 2.12 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.6 for FC Augsburg and 1.1 for 1. FC Union Berlin.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 72.3%), and both teams are likely to score (62.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 2-1, 2-0, 3-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: FC Augsburg to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 52.1% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Ex-U.S. youth defender Noahkai Banks picks Germany over USMNT — The German Football Federation announced on Friday that coveted dual national defender Noahkai Banks has pledged his international future to Germany over the United States. (ESPN, 2026-09-18)