SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich prediction: Bayern Munich to win 1-2 as model gives 70.4% chance
Bundesliga sees SC Freiburg face Bayern Munich at Europa-Park Stadion. The model makes Bayern Munich the favourite, assigning a clear 70.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is SC Freiburg 9.1%, draw 20.5%, Bayern Munich 70.4%.
SC Freiburg have generated 1.91 goals per game (1.13x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.42 conceded per game. Bayern Munich average 3.58 scored (2.12x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.05 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for SC Freiburg and 2.7 for Bayern Munich.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 76.7%), and both teams are likely to score (69.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-2, 1-3, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Bayern Munich to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 70.4% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Bayern Munich's Vincent Kompany 'stable,' could be away for weeks after collapse — Bayern Munich coach Vincent Kompany will have more tests to determine why he collapsed during a training session the previous day, the club said Saturday. (ESPN, 2026-10-24)
- Harry Kane's Ballon d'Or-worthy goalscoring numbers: What stats, charts say — How Harry Kane's goalscoring compares to his Ballon d'Or rivals, including Kylian Mbappé and Lamine Yamal. (ESPN, 2026-10-24)
- Harry Kane, the Ballon d'Or and England's history of heartbreak: Can Bayern Munich star buck the trend? — ESPN's Tom Hamilton explores Harry Kane's Ballon d'Or case, England's troubled history with the award and why the odds may be stacked against him. (ESPN, 2026-10-24)
- Bayern Munich coach Vincent Kompany hospitalized after collapsing at training — Bayern Munich coach Vincent Kompany is undergoing tests in hospital after collapsing during a training session Friday, the German club confirmed. (ESPN, 2026-10-23)
- In-the-dark Kane trying not to 'stress' over Monday's Ballon d'Or reveal — Bayern striker Harry Kane said he would prefer to know ahead of time whether he has won the Ballon D'Or, adding he is still in the dark over Monday's decision. (ESPN, 2026-10-22)
- Declan Rice: Harry Kane 'deserves' Ballon d'Or: 'It's his time' — Declan Rice has backed England teammate Harry Kane to win the Ballon d'Or on Monday, saying it's "his time." (ESPN, 2026-10-22)