VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach prediction: VfB Stuttgart to win 2-1 as model gives 80.5% chance
Bundesliga sees VfB Stuttgart face Borussia Mönchengladbach at MHPArena. The model makes VfB Stuttgart the favourite, assigning a strong 80.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is VfB Stuttgart 80.5%, draw 14.1%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 5.4%.
VfB Stuttgart have generated 1.81 goals per game (1.05x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.52 conceded per game. Borussia Mönchengladbach average 1.32 scored (0.77x average) and are a leaky defence at 2.24 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.6 for VfB Stuttgart and 1.1 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 71.5%), and both teams are likely to score (61.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 2-1, 2-0, 3-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: VfB Stuttgart to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 80.5% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Borussia Monchengladbach hire new coach amid losing start — Borussia Mönchengladbach hired Alexander Blessin as their new coach on Tuesday, tasking him with turning around a losing start to the Bundesliga season. (ESPN, 2026-09-22)
- Stuttgart's Demirovic scores 12-minute Champions League hat trick — VfB Stuttgart 's Ermedin Demirovic scored the first hat trick of the Champions League season in the span of 12 first-half minutes against Viking on Wednesday. (ESPN, 2026-09-09)