SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg prediction: SV Elversberg to win 2-1 as model gives 39.4% chance
Bundesliga sees SV Elversberg face FC Augsburg at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde. The model makes SV Elversberg the favourite, assigning a narrow 39.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is SV Elversberg 39.4%, draw 27.7%, FC Augsburg 32.9%.
SV Elversberg have generated 1.48 goals per game (0.85x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.54 conceded per game. FC Augsburg average 1.81 scored (1.04x average) and are a steady defence at 1.70 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.6 for SV Elversberg and 1.4 for FC Augsburg.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 59.1%), and both teams are likely to score (62.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: SV Elversberg to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 39.4% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Ex-U.S. youth defender Noahkai Banks picks Germany over USMNT — The German Football Federation announced on Friday that coveted dual national defender Noahkai Banks has pledged his international future to Germany over the United States. (ESPN, 2026-09-18)
- Bundesliga breakout star Cole Campbell committed to U.S. — The breakout American star of the soccer season so far in Germany, Cole Campbell, has affirmed his commitment to the U.S. as he pushes for a first senior call-up. (ESPN, 2026-09-16)
- Elversberg coach cleared to face Bayern after ref admits error — The coach of Elversberg, the small-town team shaking up German soccer, has been cleared to be in the dugout against champion Bayern Munich after a referee admitted he made a mistake sending him off. (ESPN, 2026-09-11)
- SV Elversberg's ascent to the Bundesliga is amazing. Just don't call it a fairytale — SV Elversberg don't like "fairytale" comparisons even though their rise to Germany's top division, beating Bayer Leverkusen already this season, feels like a dream. It's all about staying true to who they are and where they're from. (ESPN, 2026-09-10)