Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction: Werder Bremen to win 1-0 as model gives 59.4% chance
Bundesliga sees Werder Bremen face SC Paderborn 07 at Weserstadion. The model makes Werder Bremen the favourite, assigning a slight 59.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Werder Bremen 59.4%, draw 22.4%, SC Paderborn 07 18.2%.
Werder Bremen have generated 1.42 goals per game (0.82x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.79 conceded per game. SC Paderborn 07 average 0.62 scored (0.36x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.45 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for Werder Bremen and 0.6 for SC Paderborn 07.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 70.3%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 33.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-0, 0-0, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Werder Bremen to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 59.4% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.