Hamburg SV vs VfB Stuttgart prediction: VfB Stuttgart to win 1-2 as model gives 55.3% chance
Bundesliga sees Hamburg SV face VfB Stuttgart at Volksparkstadion. The model makes VfB Stuttgart the favourite, assigning a slight 55.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Hamburg SV 20.8%, draw 23.9%, VfB Stuttgart 55.3%.
Hamburg SV have generated 1.20 goals per game (0.69x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.16 conceded per game. VfB Stuttgart average 1.97 scored (1.14x average) and are a steady defence at 1.57 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.2 for Hamburg SV and 2.2 for VfB Stuttgart.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 66.6%), and both teams are likely to score (63.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 0-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: VfB Stuttgart to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 55.3% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Stuttgart's Demirovic scores 12-minute Champions League hat trick — VfB Stuttgart 's Ermedin Demirovic scored the first hat trick of the Champions League season in the span of 12 first-half minutes against Viking on Wednesday. (ESPN, 2026-09-09)
- Fabio Vieira joins Hamburg in permanent deal from Arsenal — Fabio Vieira has completed a permanent move to Bundesliga side Hamburg SV from Arsenal. (ESPN, 2026-09-01)