Vitória de Guimaraes vs Maritimo prediction: Vitória de Guimaraes to win 1-0 as model gives 71.8% chance
Primeira Liga sees Vitória de Guimaraes face Maritimo at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques. The model makes Vitória de Guimaraes the favourite, assigning a clear 71.8% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Vitória de Guimaraes 71.8%, draw 16.8%, Maritimo 11.4%.
Vitória de Guimaraes have generated 0.90 goals per game (0.67x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.39 conceded per game. Maritimo average 1.10 scored (0.81x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.80 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for Vitória de Guimaraes and 1 for Maritimo.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 57.9%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (48.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Vitória de Guimaraes to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 71.8% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.