Alverca vs Arouca prediction: Alverca to win 2-1 as model gives 49.9% chance
Primeira Liga sees Alverca face Arouca at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca. The model makes Alverca the favourite, assigning a slight 49.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Alverca 49.9%, draw 24.9%, Arouca 25.2%.
Alverca have generated 1.38 goals per game (1.02x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.43 conceded per game. Arouca average 1.43 scored (1.06x average) and are a steady defence at 1.24 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.4 for Alverca and 1.4 for Arouca.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (58%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Alverca to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 49.9% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.