Palermo vs Vicenza prediction: Palermo to win 3-1 as model gives 66% chance
Serie B sees Palermo face Vicenza at Stadio Renzo Barbera. The model makes Palermo the favourite, assigning a clear 66% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Palermo 66%, draw 22.6%, Vicenza 11.4%.
Palermo have generated 1.97 goals per game (1.51x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.15 conceded per game. Vicenza average 1.32 scored (1.01x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.85 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 3.1 for Palermo and 1 for Vicenza.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 78.5%), and both teams are likely to score (62.7%). The most probable exact scoreline is 3-1, with 3-1, 2-1, 3-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Palermo to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 66% confidence. A 3-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.