Empoli vs Juve Stabia prediction: Juve Stabia to win 0-1 as model gives 46.2% chance
Serie B sees Empoli face Juve Stabia at Stadio Carlo Castellani - Computer Gross Arena. The model makes Juve Stabia the favourite, assigning a slight 46.2% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Empoli 26.2%, draw 27.6%, Juve Stabia 46.2%.
Empoli have generated 1.03 goals per game (0.79x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.59 conceded per game. Juve Stabia average 1.10 scored (0.85x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.08 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1 for Empoli and 1.2 for Juve Stabia.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 63.2%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 44.7%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 1-1, 0-0, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Juve Stabia to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 46.2% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.