Cremonese vs Benevento prediction: Benevento to win 0-1 as model gives 44.2% chance
Serie B sees Cremonese face Benevento at Stadio Giovanni Zini. The model makes Benevento the favourite, assigning a narrow 44.2% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Cremonese 28%, draw 27.8%, Benevento 44.2%.
Cremonese have generated 0.96 goals per game (0.73x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.18 conceded per game. Benevento average 1.62 scored (1.23x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.86 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.7 for Cremonese and 1.3 for Benevento.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 67.5%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 38.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 0-1, 0-0, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Benevento to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 44.2% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.