US Avellino vs Pisa prediction: Pisa to win 1-2 as model gives 47.6% chance
Serie B sees US Avellino face Pisa at Partenio. The model makes Pisa the favourite, assigning a slight 47.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is US Avellino 24.5%, draw 27.9%, Pisa 47.6%.
US Avellino have generated 1.24 goals per game (0.95x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.24 conceded per game. Pisa average 2.04 scored (1.57x average) and are a steady defence at 1.43 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.5 for US Avellino and 1.8 for Pisa.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 63.7%), and both teams are likely to score (66%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Pisa to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 47.6% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.