Arezzo vs Ascoli prediction: Ascoli to win 0-2 as model gives 53.5% chance
Serie B sees Arezzo face Ascoli at Stadio Città di Arezzo. The model makes Ascoli the favourite, assigning a slight 53.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Arezzo 23.3%, draw 23.2%, Ascoli 53.5%.
Arezzo have generated 0.96 goals per game (0.74x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.07 conceded per game. Ascoli average 1.88 scored (1.44x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.65 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.5 for Arezzo and 2.7 for Ascoli.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 62.3%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 39.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-2, with 0-2, 0-3, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Ascoli to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 53.5% confidence. A 0-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.