Virtus Entella vs US Avellino result: 1-1 as Virtus Entella were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Virtus Entella 1-1 US Avellino. We tipped Virtus Entella at 38.9% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Serie B sees Virtus Entella face US Avellino at Comunale Aldo Gastaldi. The model makes Virtus Entella the favourite, assigning a narrow 38.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Virtus Entella 38.9%, draw 26.7%, US Avellino 34.4%.
Virtus Entella have generated 1.10 goals per game (0.84x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.20 conceded per game. US Avellino average 1.26 scored (0.96x average) and are a steady defence at 1.26 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.2 for Virtus Entella and 1 for US Avellino.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 61.9%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (46.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Virtus Entella to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 38.9% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.