Pisa vs Palermo prediction: Pisa to win 2-1 as model gives 41.8% chance
Serie B sees Pisa face Palermo at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. The model makes Pisa the favourite, assigning a narrow 41.8% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Pisa 41.8%, draw 26.6%, Palermo 31.7%.
Pisa have generated 1.90 goals per game (1.46x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.21 conceded per game. Palermo average 1.89 scored (1.45x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.02 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.7 for Pisa and 1.6 for Palermo.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 62.7%), and both teams are likely to score (65.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Pisa to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 41.8% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.