Padova vs Sudtirol result: 2-0 as Sudtirol were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Padova 2-0 Sudtirol. We tipped Sudtirol at 36.8% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Serie B sees Padova face Sudtirol at Euganeo. The model makes Sudtirol the favourite, assigning a narrow 36.8% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Padova 36.3%, draw 26.9%, Sudtirol 36.8%.
Padova have generated 0.96 goals per game (0.73x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.29 conceded per game. Sudtirol average 1.04 scored (0.79x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.11 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.9 for Padova and 0.9 for Sudtirol.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 72.3%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 37.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 0-0, 1-1, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Sudtirol to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 36.8% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.