Mantova vs Cremonese result: 0-2 as Mantova were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Mantova 0-2 Cremonese. We tipped Mantova at 53.3% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Serie B sees Mantova face Cremonese at Stadio Danilo Martelli. The model makes Mantova the favourite, assigning a slight 53.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Mantova 53.3%, draw 24.9%, Cremonese 21.8%.
Mantova have generated 1.50 goals per game (1.15x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.26 conceded per game. Cremonese average 0.81 scored (0.62x average) and are a steady defence at 1.34 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.7 for Mantova and 0.7 for Cremonese.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 56.4%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 42.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-0, 2-0, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Mantova to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 53.3% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.