Vicenza vs Modena result: 1-2 as Modena were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: Vicenza 1-2 Modena. We tipped Modena at 46.9% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Serie B sees Vicenza face Modena at Romeo Menti di Vicenza. The model makes Modena the favourite, assigning a slight 46.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Vicenza 27.2%, draw 25.9%, Modena 46.9%.
Vicenza have generated 1.37 goals per game (1.04x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.82 conceded per game. Modena average 1.51 scored (1.15x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.06 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.2 for Vicenza and 1.9 for Modena.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 60.4%), and both teams are likely to score (61.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 0-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Modena to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 46.9% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.