Juve Stabia vs Hellas Verona result: 0-1 as Juve Stabia were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Juve Stabia 0-1 Hellas Verona. We tipped Juve Stabia at 42.4% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Serie B sees Juve Stabia face Hellas Verona at Romeo Menti di Castellammare. The model makes Juve Stabia the favourite, assigning a narrow 42.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Juve Stabia 42.4%, draw 26.6%, Hellas Verona 31%.
Juve Stabia have generated 1.18 goals per game (0.91x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.08 conceded per game. Hellas Verona average 1.86 scored (1.42x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.65 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.7 for Juve Stabia and 1.4 for Hellas Verona.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 59%), and both teams are likely to score (62.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Juve Stabia to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 42.4% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.