Cesena vs Empoli result: 2-1 as Cesena were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: Cesena 2-1 Empoli. We tipped Cesena at 40.6% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Serie B sees Cesena face Empoli at Estadio Dino Manuzzi. The model makes Cesena the favourite, assigning a narrow 40.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Cesena 40.6%, draw 26.7%, Empoli 32.7%.
Cesena have generated 1.00 goals per game (0.76x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.56 conceded per game. Empoli average 1.03 scored (0.78x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.56 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for Cesena and 1.1 for Empoli.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 56.2%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (50.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Cesena to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 40.6% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.