Carrarese vs Arezzo result: 2-1 as Carrarese were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: Carrarese 2-1 Arezzo. We tipped Carrarese at 55.8% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Serie B sees Carrarese face Arezzo at Dei Marmi. The model makes Carrarese the favourite, assigning a slight 55.8% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Carrarese 55.8%, draw 24.6%, Arezzo 19.6%.
Carrarese have generated 1.06 goals per game (0.81x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.24 conceded per game. Arezzo average 0.95 scored (0.73x average) and are a leaky defence at 2.08 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.9 for Carrarese and 0.8 for Arezzo.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (48.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 2-0, 1-1, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Carrarese to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 55.8% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.