Benevento vs Catanzaro result: 1-1 as Benevento were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Benevento 1-1 Catanzaro. We tipped Benevento at 64.3% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Serie B sees Benevento face Catanzaro at Stadio Ciro Vigorito. The model makes Benevento the favourite, assigning a clear 64.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Benevento 64.3%, draw 21.9%, Catanzaro 13.8%.
Benevento have generated 1.71 goals per game (1.31x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.83 conceded per game. Catanzaro average 1.42 scored (1.08x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.89 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.8 for Benevento and 0.8 for Catanzaro.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 69.2%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (52.7%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 2-0, 3-0, 2-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Benevento to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 64.3% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.