Ascoli vs Sampdoria result: 2-0 as Ascoli were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: Ascoli 2-0 Sampdoria. We tipped Ascoli at 70.2% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Serie B sees Ascoli face Sampdoria at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. The model makes Ascoli the favourite, assigning a clear 70.2% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Ascoli 70.2%, draw 19.8%, Sampdoria 10%.
Ascoli have generated 1.86 goals per game (1.41x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.75 conceded per game. Sampdoria average 0.94 scored (0.72x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.57 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.5 for Ascoli and 0.5 for Sampdoria.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 57.1%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 35.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 2-0, 3-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Ascoli to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 70.2% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.