Virtus Entella vs Mantova prediction: Virtus Entella to win 2-1 as model gives 45.6% chance
Serie B sees Virtus Entella face Mantova at Comunale Aldo Gastaldi. The model makes Virtus Entella the favourite, assigning a slight 45.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Virtus Entella 45.6%, draw 26%, Mantova 28.4%.
Virtus Entella have generated 1.19 goals per game (0.90x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.22 conceded per game. Mantova average 1.55 scored (1.17x average) and are a steady defence at 1.36 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.4 for Virtus Entella and 1.3 for Mantova.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (55.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Virtus Entella to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 45.6% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.