Sudtirol vs Sampdoria prediction: Sampdoria narrow favourites at 46.1%
Serie B sees Sudtirol face Sampdoria at Stadio Druso. The model makes Sampdoria the favourite, assigning a slight 46.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Sudtirol 21.2%, draw 32.6%, Sampdoria 46.1%.
Sudtirol have generated 1.04 goals per game (0.79x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.12 conceded per game. Sampdoria average 0.94 scored (0.71x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.62 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.4 for Sudtirol and 0.7 for Sampdoria.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 63.7%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 40.4%).
Verdict: Sampdoria to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 46.1% confidence. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.